2G2K Circus: You Need More People
Jeff started us off with this question:
On a different topic, The Times and some commenters have noted that there's a huge enthusiasm gap with the Reep race this year. Nevada alone turned out over 10x as many Dems to the caucuses this year as they did in 2004, and 3x as many as Reeps. How do you think this translates to the general election?
That's a tricky question because it will be interesting to see whether democrats can sustain this level of engagement going into the general election. I get the sense that there will be a significant drop off if either Obama or Clinton are not the nominees, with the bigger margin coming if Obama does not get the nod. This should not be read as an indictment of Clinton, but so many people would pick her to win that frustrated Obama, Edwards, and Kucinich voters might accipurposefully neglect to vote. We saw a little of bit this with Kerry's campaign in 2004. People get excited about a primary and all kinds of get out the vote campaigns emerge, but these campaigns and the drawn out elections they undergird, eventually become less pressing for most americans.
Additionally, democrats are going to have to figure out how to maneuver through Michigan and Florida after not participating in primaries in those two states. This Michigan and Florida story has been somewhat underreported, and it can prove more important to democrat hopes than we think because not only are they both rich in delegates, but they also stretch a candidate's diversity. In Michigan you have to appeal to laid off factory workers, college professors, students, etc., and ethnic diversity is at times negligible. Florida on the other hand has strong Cuban and senior citizen voting blocks that are not always in concert with each other. It also has less visible voting blocks from Haitian, Jamaican and South American countries who democrats have to engage.
The Republican candidate might have an advantage at least in terms of infrastructure in these two states, and in a close race, such an advantage is too slight to overlook.
What do you thinK?
Ferentz
EatMYShorts, you are right with the McCarthy allusion, New Hampshire tears notwithstanding.
Mahalia, Jeff suggests otherwise in his reply. But, I am liable to agree with you on this one. Unlike 2004, Obama has remained competitive longer than either Dean or Edwards, therefore his followers are making a greater investment. Once you add that Edwards has also committed to staying in for the long run, it suggests that it might be harder for Dems to close ranks than previously imagine. Also unlike in 2004 where Kerry benefited greatly from people obsessed with getting Bush out of office, people will feel compelled to vote more on principles than passions, what passioned principles mean going into this election are not entirely clear. Without a menace like Bush in office, it is hard to predict how moderates will vote, or whether they will even vote until we see how the two candidates present themselves in a general election. If his campaign tactics against Mitt Romney are any indication, McCain is not afraid to level impolite barbs at his opponent, and we already know how die-hard republicans hate the Clintons, so a Clinton McCain contest surely has the potential to be a nasty one. McCain's bread and butter when things get dirty, and which most media outlets are more than happy to back up, is that he's a war hero. Having such a wild card in his political back pocket allows McCain to be the endearing Maverick that so many people love, and we have already seen how Clinton deals with such an opponent.
Ferentz
in Current Affairs, Politics, Presidential Campaign, 2G2K Circus
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Related: 2G2K Circus: Rudy Can Fail
Reader Comments (2)
I think that this may be right, but not completely because of the reasons mentioned. I think that if Obama does not get the nomination, there might be some backlash because of the Clintonism that went on prior to SC, especially among African Americans. In fact, I'm actually almost ashamed to say that if Hillary gets the nomination- especially if Obama is not picked as her running mate, I might actually have a blank vote in Nov. Prior to two weeks ago, that really was not the case at all. I think that Billary have managed to alienate quite a few potential voters with their dirty tactics.
It is physically impossible for me to vote for clinton under any circumstances. This is like Eugene Mcarthy-Bobby Kennedy all over again.