Jeff, are you suggesting that we are not experts? 

Looking over the NY Times's coverage of voter turnout in New York on Tuesday reveals another interesting twist to this discussion of emergent v. insurgent voting blocs, at least as it pertains to Nueva York's Latinos.  Crazy as this may sound, but if Hillary Clinton wins in November, African American politicians who supported her stand to lose as much, if not more than if they had supported Obama. 

Here's a rationale: Obama's victory in central Brooklyn and his ability to record a split in Congressman Charles Rangel's district in Harlem reiterated a national trend of African American votes steering in his direction.  For example, in Brooklyn Obama received an endorsement from Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries, who shares the senator’s profile as a charismatic emerging political star.  Meanwhile in Harlem, Rangel, the dean of black democrats, older and like his fellow black political patriarch, Andrew Young, failed to deliver a victory for Clinton.  Rangel’s failure should not have been a surprise considering Obama’s recent success in South Carolina, but this observation does nothing to replace the political capital that Rangel aggressively extended on Clinton’s behalf even as her support among his Harlem constituents plummeted.

These conclusions may seem trivial to non-New Yorkers, but they can potentially mark a historical breakthrough if Clinton makes it into the White House.  A Clinton victory in November coupled with letdowns by Rangel and his Brooklyn counterpart, Yvette Clarke, means that New York is now poised to send a Latino senator to Washington, one who would join Robert Menendez of New Jersey and Ken Salazar of Colorado. 

Of course, the decision of choosing the senator to replace Clinton rests solely in Governor Eliot Spitzer's hands, but given New York's current demographic shifts, most notably the fact that Latinos outnumber African Americans, Spitzer would have very little reason for selecting any of the black democrats who are presumably currently favored for this position.  This short list includes Spitzer's Lieutenant Governor, David A. Paterson, and Congressman Gregory Meeks.  Meeks can at least lay claim to delivering a victory for Clinton in his southeastern Queens district, but Paterson’s significance in the changing landscape of New York’s Democratic Party is cloudy at best.  Both resumes pale in comparison to Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion Jr, who is to New York’s Democratic Party what Eli Manning is to the New York football Giants.  On Super Tuesday Carrion marshaled a successful voter turnout for Clinton's camp that arrived on the heels of ushering another stellar turnout for Spitzer’s gubernatorial campaign.  Carrion’s recent string of successes overwhelmingly demonstrates what Latino voters are capable of accomplishing in New York elections moving forward, and will be hard to overlook if, and when Spitzer has to select a replacement for Clinton. 

Considering that Clinton has just had to dip into her savings to finance the rest of her campaign, such a prognostication might be irrelevant.  Nevertheless, whatever happens from this point on in the democratic campaign, one cannot deny that Adolfo Carrion Jr. is a rising power broker in the party.